CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INDEX
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index is based on a survey — conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002 — of our member CEOs' plans for hiring and capital spending, and their expectations for sales, over the next six months. Taking these factors together, the survey signals the direction of the U.S. economy.
Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Ticks Up Again in Q3
Hiring Plans Approach Historic Norm While Capital Investment Plans and Sales Expectations Remain Above Their Long-Run Averages
Washington – Business Roundtable today released its Q3 2026 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEO plans for capital spending and employment and expectations for sales over the next six months.
The overall Index rose by three points from last quarter to 94, its strongest reading in more than four years and well above its historic average of 83. The increase was driven primarily by improved hiring plans, as sales expectations and capital investment plans remained at multi-year highs.
“This quarter’s survey results are welcome news and reflect the resilience of the U.S. economy, but affordability pressures remain a challenge for businesses and families,” said Business Roundtable Chair Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Cisco. “We will continue to work with Congress and the Administration to advance policies that lower costs and strengthen the economy, including durable permitting reform and workforce measures that expand opportunity and equip people with the skills they need to succeed in the AI era.”
The Survey’s three subindices were as follows:
- Plans for hiring increased seven points to a value of 58.
- Plans for capital investment increased three points to a value of 96.
- Expectations for sales remained at 129.
Values above 50 signal growth, while values below 50 signal contraction.
“The increase in hiring plans is encouraging, even as the broader economic picture remains mixed,” said Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten. “But further deterioration of the vital U.S.-Canada economic relationship and broader North American trading framework could deliver a major blow to that progress. We urge both governments to return to the negotiating table, remove harmful tariffs and secure a path to preserve and strengthen USMCA.”
This quarter’s survey was in the field from August 31 through September 11, 2026. In total, 174 CEOs completed the survey.
How do you expect your company's sales to change in the next six months? | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase | No Change | Decrease | Subindex | |
| Q2 2026 | 83% | 13% | 4% | 129 |
| Q3 2026 | 83% | 13% | 4% | 129 |
| Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Subindex | +0 | |||
| Historic Average of Subindex | 112 | |||
How do you expect your company's U.S. capital spending to change in the next six months? | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase | No Change | Decrease | Subindex | |
| Q2 2026 | 50% | 42% | 8% | 93 |
| Q3 2026 | 52% | 43% | 6% | 96 |
| Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Subindex | +3 | |||
| Historic Average of Subindex | 77 | |||
How do you expect your company's U.S. employment to change in the next six months? | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Increase | No Change | Decrease | Subindex | |
| Q2 2026 | 30% | 40% | 30% | 51 |
| Q3 2026 | 36% | 37% | 28% | 58 |
| Quarter-to-Quarter Change in Subindex | +7 | |||
| Historic Average of Subindex | 61 | |||
*Note: Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Quarter-to-quarter change is calculated from rounded values.
CEO Outlook
Capital Expenditures
Employment
Sales Expectations
About the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002, provides a forward-looking view of the economy by Business Roundtable member CEOs. The survey is designed to provide a picture of the future direction of the U.S. economy by asking CEOs to report their company’s expectations for sales and plans for capital spending and hiring over the next six months. The data are used to create the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index and subindices for sales, capex and hiring. These indices are diffusion indices that range between -50 and 150 — where readings at 50 or above indicate economic expansion, and readings below 50 indicate economic contraction. A diffusion index is defined as the percentage of respondents who report that a measure will increase, minus the percentage who report that the measure will decrease. The diffusion indices here are then normalized by adding 50 to the result.
