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Latest CBO Budget Report Reinforces the Need for Growth

Jul 15, 2014

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its "Updated Budget Projections: 2014 to 2024" report today, giving little comfort to those who believe that America's long-term fiscal position borders on the dangerous. If borders isn't understating it ...

From the CBO homepage:

Although federal deficits have shrunk markedly in recent years, growing spending for Social Security and major health care programs, along with increasing interest costs, would cause them to rise steadily over the long term.

The larger deficits would cause federal debt to grow faster than the economy. By 2039, debt would exceed 100 percent of GDP and would be on an upward path, CBO projects—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

The Washington Examiner has an interesting take, gaining some purchase in social media. From "Congressional Budget Office downgrades fiscal outlook, but not because of debt":

[The] worsening debt-to-GDP ratio is not due to greater debt accumulation, according to the CBO. Instead, it's a function of slower anticipated economic growth. The CBO had previously downgraded its estimates of economic growth to reflect the economy's weak performance in recent years and its projections for slower labor force and productivity growth.

Which points us back to a Wall Street Journal op-ed in January by Randall Stephenson, Chairman and CEO of AT&T and Chairman of Business Roundtable. From "A Business Short List for Growth: First, fiscal stability. Then tax reform, expanded trade and immigration reform":

No matter the topic, the debate in Washington often comes down to whether we need more government funding for social programs or less spending to reduce the debt we leave our children. But this win-lose framing completely misses the one thing required to achieve both objectives: robust economic growth.

The simple fact is that if we want to control the deficit, preserve key entitlement programs, educate our children, grow jobs, and offer upward economic mobility for everyone, we have to get our economy growing faster.

A central element to BRT's emphasis on fiscal stability is bringing a measure of discipline to entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security. In 2013, BRT issued its recommendations on modernizing entitlements, required both to preserve the programs for future generations while getting U.S. spending under control.

More coverage, commentary ...

The Hill, "CBO says US deficit levels are unsustainable"

Congress’s nonpartisan budget watchdog warned Tuesday that U.S. entitlement programs would drive the country’s debt to unsustainable levels in the coming years.

The federal debt is now 74 percent of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said in its latest long-term budget outlook, a product of the outsized budget deficits the U.S. recorded following the 2008 fiscal crash.

But the U.S.’s aging population will help drive increased spending on healthcare programs like Medicare and on Social Security, increasing the debt to 106 percent of GDP by 2039.

Bloomberg, "Federal Debt to Reach 106% of Economy in 2039, CBO Says": "Senator Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican, said in a statement that the CBO report 'is a stark reminder of the urgent need for entitlement reform.'"

 
 

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